2012 primaries: Ron Paul halts campaigning; ensures candidacy

[frogurt]

The Santorum surge.

Originally Posted by Public Policy Polling

Headed for a Photo Finish in Iowa

The Republican caucus in Iowa is headed for a photo finish, with the three leading contenders all within two points of each other. Ron Paul is at 20%, Mitt Romney at 19%, and Rick Santorum at 18%. Rounding out the field are Newt Gingrich at 14%, Rick Perry at 10%, Michele Bachmann at 8%, Jon Huntsman at 4%, and Buddy Roemer at 2%.



The momentum in the race is completely on Santorum's side. He's moved up 8 points since a PPP poll earlier in the week, while no one else has seen more than a one point gain in their support. Among voters who say they decided who to vote for in the last seven days he leads Romney 29-17 with Paul and Gingrich both at 13.

Santorum's net favorability of 60/30 makes him easily the most popular candidate in the field. No one else's favorability exceeds 52%. He may also have more room to grow in the final 48 hours of the campaign than the other front runners: 14% of voters say he's their second choice to 11% for Romney and only 8% for Paul. Santorum's taken the lead with two key groups of Republican voters: with Tea Partiers he's at 23% to 18% for Gingrich, 16% for Paul, 15% for Bachmann, and only 12% for Romney. And with Evangelicals he's at 24% to 16% for Gingrich, and 15% for Paul and Romney.

Other than Santorum's rise the other big story of this week is Paul's fall. He was at 24% earlier in the week but has dropped to 20%. That decline in support coincides with a precipitous drop in his favorability numbers. On our last poll he was at +13 (53/40), but that's gone down 21 points on the margin to -8 (43/51).

For all that Paul still has a very decent chance at winning on Tuesday- it just depends on whether his unusual coalition of young voters and non-Republicans really comes out to caucus. Among actual Republican voters Paul is tied for 3rd place with Gingrich at 17%, behind Romney's 21% and Santorum's 19%. But with independents and Democrats who plan to vote, which we peg at 24% of the electorate, Paul leads with 30% to just 14% each for Santorum and Romney.

There's a similar divide along age lines. With seniors Paul is in only 5th place at 11%, well behind Romney's 27%, Gingrich's 19%, Santorum's 17%, and Perry's 12%. But with voters under 45, who we think will make a larger share of the electorate than they did in 2008, Paul's at 30% to 19% for Santorum and 14% for Romney.

If these young voters and independents really turn out for Paul on Tuesday he has a decent chance. But if it's a more traditional turnout Romney's chances are looking really good. As mentioned above he's winning with regular Republicans. He's winning with seniors. Most of the time if you're winning with those groups in Iowa you're going to win overall. Paul's unique appeal could confound some of the usual patterns about who turns out for these contests. But if it doesn't Romney or Santorum could come out on top...it looks like it's going to be a photo finish.

Voter support is so volatile right now that predictions by poll analysts are being drastically revised daily. Nate Silver's own predictions for Iowa two days ago had Romney with a 63% chance of taking the state, Paul with 20%, and Santorum with an 11% chance. His revised prediction posted tonight has Romney's chances plummeting to 38%, Paul up to 34%, and Santorum up to 24%.

It will be interesting to see what the outcome will be on Wednesday.

[Aries Walker]

As a Democrat, I would love to see Santorum win the nomination.

[Decius]

Oh please, yes. All the people googeling Santorum afterwards will make it worth alone. The crash and burn if he really gets the nomination would be sweet too of course. Maybe Obama could beat Reagan's outcome against Mondale. Although for a "look a this broken system, we need to change that shit" a Ron Paul nomination would be even sweeter.

[Aurizen_Darkstar]

I still think that even should Romney be the guy to get the nomination in the end, there is still SO much baggage that he's got that the Dems can use against him. I think the 'Santorum surge' is just a bump in the road at this point.

Basically it's going to be a nasty race to November, and probably a very close election. The only other one that seems to be as important as the Presidential race is the Senate (as it seems to be the least secure for the Dems this time around), but the House looks like it will probably flip.

[Aurizen_Darkstar]

For those of you who may not have seen this, a restaurant owner in Iowa decided to name a new dish....

...the 'Santorum salad'.

[Archangel3d]

Oh God I was not prepared for that picture while keeping in mind the colloquial definition of "Santorum"

[Dean]

My life would have been much better if I had never heard the phrase Santorum Surge.

[Phaedrus]

Originally Posted by Aurizen_Darkstar

For those of you who may not have seen this, a restaurant owner in Iowa decided to name a new dish....

...the 'Santorum salad'.

Is it a . . . tossed salad?

[Kamileon]

Originally Posted by Archangel3d

Oh God I was not prepared for that picture while keeping in mind the colloquial definition of "Santorum"

I was not prepared for that picture while keeping in mind the colloquial definition of "salad". What the hell kind of salad is that?

[Ayelmar]

According to the article, its chicken salad.

Originally Posted by Wikipedia

In the United States it refers to a salad consisting primarily of chopped chicken meat and a binder such as mayonnaise or salad dressing. Like tuna salad and egg salad, it may be served on top of lettuce, tomato, avocado, or some combination of these. It may also be used for sandwiches. Typically it is made with leftover or canned chicken.

[Kamileon]

I assumed that's probably what it was, but I've never seen it served as a blob in a bowl, rather than as a sandwich.

[Ayelmar]

I guess it's a Southern/rural thing.
Not entirely UNcommon here in Tennessee at some places, but yeah, it's not the norm by ANY means.

[suncrush]

How in the know was the diner owner?...

[Aurizen_Darkstar]

Originally Posted by suncrush

How in the know was the diner owner?...

Actually, it was the assistant Manager:

A lot of people ask about the economy and the threat of Iran and about military aid and maybe about social issues, whether it be abortion rights or something else. I don't care about those things, I care about what you think about my damn salad," said Keith Prange, assistant manager and the maker of the salad.

[Dean]

I've always been curious how adding mayo makes something a salad.

[Sprint]

America that's how

[jonthegm]

Originally Posted by Sprint

America that's how

[Felden]

I am giddy today--I love Primary season

[frogurt]

Anyone know what time the results are going to be released?

EDIT: Found some info. The caucus vote itself will occur sometime after 8pm EST, but since the ballots are actually just names written on paper, this might take a while to tabulate.

[caldazar]

The caucus begins at 8PM Eastern. At that time, each of the campaigns will have the opportunity to make a speech at each precinct, and then everyone votes together. Even in "high-turnout" years, there aren't that many people attending the caucuses, so votes are counted pretty fast. I'd bet we hear some results within an hour or two after the caucus starts; just like regular elections the networks compare early returns to entrance polls, so they may call the race early.

[frogurt]

About a quarter of the precincts are reporting, and so far it's a three way tie between Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, and Rick Santorum.

[Nim]

I love their Huntsman picture. That is truly a look of resignation.

[Wtgamerz]

Wow, it's an absolute dead heat so far. Crazy.

[Felden]

It's crazy how close it is--on pace to be the closest, ever.

Iowa splits their votes proportionally (I think!), so things will..remain unclear.

[Felden]

Entrance Polls:

http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/pr...owa/exit-polls