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Old 2012-04-13, 10:01 PM   #26
blackjack
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jimmy McForum View Post
guess whos driving to kansas this week
You poor bastard.

Shame about the weather, too.
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Old 2012-04-13, 10:36 PM   #27
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The SPC has expanded the high-risk area to include regions near the enhanced vorticity present at the triple point of this system:

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Old 2012-04-13, 10:41 PM   #28
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According to the map I am in the red not the pink, but I have a half buried home so I have a safe place to go if need be. My car is in a garage to prevent it from hail damage.
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Old 2012-04-14, 9:32 AM   #29
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With this morning's update, they've gone to what equates to THREAT LEVEL MAXIMUM:



If you live in Central or Eastern Nebraska, Kansas or Oklahoma, you need to pay attention to the weather today.

Quote:
Originally Posted by The SPC
THE FORECAST REASONING REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED FROM THE PAST FEW
DAYS. IN THE WAKE OF MORNING WAA STORMS ACROSS NE OK/SE KS/SW
MO...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SURGE NWD ACROSS KS TO S CENTRAL/SE NEB
BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. DAYTIME HEATING INVOF THE DRYLINE AND
BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE LOW 60S IN NEB TO THE
MID-UPPER 60S IN CENTRAL OK WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AFTERNOON MLCAPE
VALUES OF 2000-3500 J/KG. MEANWHILE... DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR
WILL BE QUITE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS IN THE UNSTABLE WARM
SECTOR...WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 50-70 KT ACROSS ALMOST THE
ENTIRE WARM SECTOR. THE DEGREE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND AN
EXPECTED INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL SHEAR LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN AN ENVIRONMENT CLEARLY INTO THE PARAMETER
SPACE ASSOCIATED WITH PREVIOUS STRONG-VIOLENT AND LONG-TRACK TORNADO
EPISODES.


THE PRIMARY QUESTION THIS OUTLOOK WILL BE STORM COVERAGE ALONG THE
DRYLINE THIS EVENING IN KS/OK. THE CONVECTIVE SCHEMES IN THE
OPERATIONAL MODELS VARY WITH STORM INITIATION SIGNALS...WHILE
SEVERAL OF THE CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS GENERATE WIDELY SCATTERED
DRYLINE SUPERCELLS IN THE 22-01Z TIME FRAME. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...MODIFIED FOR EXPECTED AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ALONG THE
DRYLINE...SHOW DEEP MIXED LAYER AND LITTLE OR NO CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION. PLUS...A WELL-DEFINED BAND OF LOW-LEVEL ASCENT IS
EXPECTED ALONG THE DRYLINE...WHICH SUGGESTS AT LEAST
WIDELY-SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE KS/OK PORTION
OF THE DRYLINE IS ENTIRELY PLAUSIBLE. FARTHER N...POTENTIALLY MORE
CONCENTRATED STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED NEAR THE SURFACE LOW AND
NW EDGE OF THE UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR IN NEB /WITHIN THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF THE JET ALOFT/. ALL FACTORS FAVOR DISCRETE CONVECTIVE
MODES THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...AND THOUGH STORMS COULD BE WIDELY
SPACED...THEY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LONG PATHS OF VERY LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING TORNADOES THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z.
Biggest risk for tornadoes will be late afternoon into the early evening. Unfortunately, the threat won't be over when these storms pass. As mentioned above, these storms will form along what's called a dryline, which is a front generated not from temperature differences, but from moisture differences. Yesterday, the dry line had dew points of around 60F east of it and 20F west of it. This evening, a cold front will sweep eastwards across the central plains producing another round of potentially severe storms. Instead of isolated thunderstorms, it will likely be a squall line along the cold front capable of producing large hail (baseballs? tennis balls?) and winds up to 60-70mph.

Please keep an eye on the skies and pay attention to any watches or warnings. The SPC page will be constantly updated with watches and warnings: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/. If you're a bit of a weather nerd and want to really keep up on what's happening, you can use the SPC Mesoanlysis page, here: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/sfctest/new/....php?sector=14. You can turn on watches and warnings in the right-hand sidebar.
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Old 2012-04-14, 11:52 AM   #30
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We're experiencing the TSTM right now.
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Old 2012-04-14, 12:05 PM   #31
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Peacefully View Post
Well, I live in the bottom of that red "High" circle there, live in an upstairs apartment, and there's no shelters nearby. Also, I don't have a car to get to one if there were.

So wish me luck? I guess?
Knock on the doors of some downstairs apartments, introduce yourself, and ask if you can shelter there if a storm hits. No reasonable person will say no. If you find someone who's not reasonable, go to the next downstairs apartment. Do it before the storms hit so you'll have a plan worked out if needed.
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Old 2012-04-14, 12:09 PM   #32
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I didn't read the news last night (pretty unusual for me), so I just found out about this alert. My husband loves to blow off these things. He wasn't in AL for the April 27 2011 storms - I was. Trust me, pay attention to the warnings and don't be stupid.
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Old 2012-04-14, 12:46 PM   #33
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Tornadoes already on the ground near Osborne, KS. This is well before the significant forcing moves in, which means it's pretty much guaranteed that there will be large tornadoes this afternoon.

The SPC has issued a PDS Tornado Watch for most regions in the high risk area. PDS stands for Particularly Dangerous Situation and is reserved for times when forecasters have significant confidence that there is substantial threat to lives or property.
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Old 2012-04-14, 8:05 PM   #34
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28 tornadoes so far, more on the ground seemingly all the time. Every thunderstorm across NE/KS/OK is capable of producing tornadoes. Stay alert, this is just beginning now...

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Old 2012-04-14, 9:21 PM   #35
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I'm not looking forward to this coming here. I hope everyone is okay. I hope my brother in law is being smart.
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Old 2012-04-14, 9:29 PM   #36
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69 tornadoes reported so far. Extrapolating the motion of one storm producing a tornado right now takes it straight through the heart of Wichita, KS:



Looks likely to have a strong tornado attached to it:

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Old 2012-04-14, 9:51 PM   #37
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Tornado Warning issued for Wichita, KS:

Quote:
Originally Posted by http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=KSZ083&warncounty=KSC173&firewxzone=KSZ083&local_place1=Wichita+KS&product1=T ornado+Warning
AT 943 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS
LOCATED NEAR CONWAY SPRINGS...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.

SOURCE...SPOTTER CONFIRMED TORNADO.

IMPACT...MAJOR HOUSE AND BUILDING DAMAGE LIKELY AND COMPLETE
DESTRUCTION POSSIBLE. NUMEROUS TREES SNAPPED. MAJOR POWER
OUTAGES IN PATH OF TORNADO HIGHLY LIKELY. SOME ROADS
POSSIBLY BLOCKED BY TORNADO DEBRIS. COMPLETE DESTRUCTION OF
VEHICLES LIKELY.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
DOWNTOWN WICHITA...VIOLA...CLEARWATER...GODDARD...MULVANE...
HAYSVILLE...SOUTH WICHITA...WICHITA MID CONTINENT AIRPORT...MCCONNELL
AIR FORCE BASE...DERBY...WEST WICHITA...EAST WICHITA...MAIZE...
NORTHEAST WICHITA...PARK CITY...COLWICH...VALLEY CENTER...LAKE
AFTON...OAKLAWN AND BEL AIRE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPEAT...A LARGE...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND POTENTIALLY DEADLY
TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE...TAKE COVER NOW.
MOVE
TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID
WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE
CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

TORNADOES ARE DIFFICULT TO SEE AND CONFIRM AT NIGHT. TAKE COVER NOW.
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Old 2012-04-14, 9:52 PM   #38
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Yeesh! Stay safe everyone

I think if I lived out there, I would have to live underground. Like in a converted missile silo or something
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Old 2012-04-14, 10:16 PM   #39
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Stay safe, people.
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Old 2012-04-14, 10:19 PM   #40
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Power flashes have been seen in SW Wichita. Power flashes are a good sign that there's a damaging tornado on the ground. This is bad news.

UPDATE: Looks like the tornado may skim the southern/SE portion of the city and miss downtown...I guess that would be the optimal path all things considered?

Latest RADAR image shows tornado just south of the city:


Last edited by bazokajoe_2k; 2012-04-14 at 10:24 PM.
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Old 2012-04-14, 11:04 PM   #41
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Tornado just missed Wichita; apparently travelled right down the turnpike between Wichita and the Air Force base. Dodged a bullet there!

Storms are beginning to fire along the cold front as it pushes off the Rockies, with a line of storms through OK and Western TX:



Round 1 is finishing off, but this event is far from over. Tornadoes aren't as likely along the cold front, however large hail and winds up to 60-70mph are certainly possible.
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Old 2012-04-15, 9:59 AM   #42
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I don't think they touched down near my town at all. There wasn't anything going on when I went to bed, so I didn't wind up hiding or anything.

Apparently some people in Woodward, KS died though.
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Old 2012-04-15, 12:03 PM   #43
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Hope anyone on here who lives in the Central Plains is alright today.

I'll do a summary a bit later, but what a day yesterday was. High risk was absolutely the right forecast.

So far, the worst tornado was one that hit Woodward, KS. So far 5 people have been reported dead. It makes me quite sad when people die in situations like these...

The Woodward, KS tornado was a powerful tornado that tore through town after dark (and after many probably thought the risk was gone). It had been warned twice earlier in the day for tornadoes as well. I have a bunch of photos and videos up on my twitter account @WeatherInThePeg of the Woodward tornado and of others from the day..
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Old 2012-04-16, 8:33 AM   #44
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If anyone is curious, I have a summary of the storms + some video up on my blog today: http://tmblr.co/Z33yByJl_yHC
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Old 2012-04-16, 8:37 AM   #45
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DRIVING INTO TORNADO

THOR IS ON MY SIDE
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